Sri Lanka is top eight of the countries
that could face a genocide
UNITED NATIONS - Genocide and
other mass atrocities are underway or risk breaking out in at least 33
countries, says a new comprehensive watch list slated for release Tuesday
- the 60th anniversary of the United Nations prevention of genocide
convention. As reports indicate UN peacekeeping efforts are in crisis amid
dwindling contributions of both cash and well-trained forces, the authors
of the new study call for an international focus on genocide prevention in
countries they've identified. Since the world pledged "never again" in the
wake of the Holocaust, Cambodia, Rwanda and Bosnia-Herzegovina are but
three examples of places where mass slaughter has occurred.
The list by the New York-based
Genocide Prevention Project for the first time combines the findings of
five leading independent watch lists to create a "watch list of watch
lists."
"Red alert" countries include
Afghanistan and Iraq alongside commonly known regions currently
experiencing genocidal conflict such as Sudan's Darfur and the Democratic
Republic of the Congo. These and Myanmar, Pakistan, Somalia and Sri Lanka
all made the list's top eight because they appear in each of the five
"expert" indexes. The next 25 "orange alert" countries appear in at least
three of the indexes and include China, Colombia, Philippines and
Indonesia as places where ongoing or simmering violence could flare to
genocidal proportions.
"It is possible to identify
early indicators of mass atrocity crimes. But what happens now is the
international community sees what's going on, gets paralyzed and, if it
acts, really only acts after the fact," said Jill Savitt, project
executive director.
"You don't see assertive
proactive diplomacy in the earliest possible moments, when the bloodshed
isn't widespread or before arms have come into the region."
The report says prudent
application of "carrots and sticks" - which it describes as the panoply of
economic, diplomatic and legal measures available to nations and the UN
Security Council - can result in "averting an escalation of violence."
Savitt said what's been lacking in the past was "political will," but
added that may change because of a convergence of recent factors. One is
the stated determination of Susan Rice, U.S. president-elect Barack
Obama's choice for U.S. ambassador to the UN, to prevent future genocides
after witnessing the after-effects of the 1994 Rwanda slaughter.
Another is current discussion
around the 60th anniversary of the genocide prevention convention, which
calls on countries to prevent and punish actions of genocide. Finally,
there is what Savitt called the public "guilt" over what occurred in
Rwanda and Bosnia, and what she additionally called public "hunger for a
response" to the Darfur crisis.
"There are things states can
do like dispatching the highest-level envoy - someone of great stature who
can call (British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's residence) 10 Downing
Street, or the UN secretary general, or President Obama," she said. "There
are all kinds of penalties and inducements, including trade and aid,
membership in political bodies, or expulsion from them. And even simple
public criticism can work."
Still, many analysts agree the
international community has long had difficulty trying to change state
behaviour purely using sanctions or diplomatic pressure.
Among countries in the
project's list of 33, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan and
Zimbabwe all face varying UN or state sanctions aimed at convincing them
to obey the international will. The list comes as Irwin Cotler, former
justice minister and attorney general, Monday released a petition calling
on countries that have signed the genocide convention to "hold Iran to
account for its genocidal incitement."
"The enduring lesson of the
Holocaust and that of the genocides that followed is that they occurred
not simply because of the machinery of death, but because of the
state-sanctioned incitement to hatred," Cotler said.
"In the case of Iran, there is
no justification for inaction," he added, citing statements by Iranian
leaders calling for the destruction of Israel.
- Canwest News Service
